Science Highlight

Temporary reduction in daily global CO₂ emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy, Robbie M. Andrew, Anthony J. De-Gol, David R. Willis, Yuli Shan, Josep G. Canadell, Pierre Friedlingstein, Felix Creutzig and Glen P. Peters

Nature Climate Change, Published 18 May 2020
DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x

Paper Abstract

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO₂ emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO₂ emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO₂ emissions path for decades.

Manuscript

Access paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x

Access Additional Global and National Figures: https://mattwjones.co.uk/covid-19

Data

Access supplementary data: https://www.icos-cp.eu/gcp-covid19

Webinar

Carbon Brief webinar: What impact is Covid-19 having on global emissions?

Images and Multimedia

Global daily fossil CO2 emmissions MtCO2 per day, sectors stacked PNG (4251 x 2989, 614kb)View ▶ Download ▼	Global daily fossil CO2 emmissions %, sectors stacked PNG (4251 x 2989, 589kb)View ▶ Download ▼
Fraction of global CO2 emmissions produced in areas subject to confinement PNG (3200 x 1600, 269kb)View ▶ Download ▼	Change in activity by sector during confinement level 3 PNG (3200 x 1800, 336kb)View ▶ Download ▼
Global CO2 emmissions MtCO2 per day to April 2020 PNG (4251 x 2391, 436kb)View ▶ Download ▼	Global CO2 emmissions MtCO2 per day to December 2020 PNG (4251 x 2391, 468kb)View ▶ Download ▼
Change in global daily fossil CO2 emmissions per sector PNG (4251 x 4783, 848kb)View ▶ Download ▼	Percent changes in activitys during lockdown GIF (852 x 498, 948kb)Play ▶ Download ▼
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Effects on global emissions from COVID-19 with Glen Peters, Research Director CICERO MP4 (1440 x 1080, 37mb, full version)Play ▶ Download ▼ MP4 (1440 x 1080, 23mb, short version)Play ▶ Download ▼

Press Releases

• UEA, UK (pdf, 35kb)
• CICERO, Norway (pdf, 143kb)
• CICERO, Norway (in Norwegian, pdf, 142kb)
• CSIRO, Australia (pdf, 207kb)
• MCC, Germany (in German, pdf, 271kb)

Blogs

• The Conversation: Coronavirus is a 'sliding doors' moment for humanity. What we do now could change Earth's trajectory.
• The Conversation (in Spanish): El coronavirus, un punto de no retorno: lo que hagamos ahora puede cambiar el rumbo del planeta.
• The Conversation (in French): Covid et baisse des émissions de CO₂: une nouvelle étude fait le point secteur par secteur.
• Scientific American: COVID-19 Could Permanently Transform Transportation.